NORTHHELM ADVISORY · PUBLIC EQUITY RESEARCH
Research
Evidence for energy-sector equity participants
Company disclosures, capital allocation and shareholder outcomes. Read the findings alongside the methods, sources and limitations.
Explore the reports ↓PUBLISHED REPORTS · NEWEST FIRST
LATEST REPORT · SEPTEMBER 30, 2026
Promises and Delivery
How energy stocks respond to guidance and results
Follow share-price and trading-volume responses to plans, guidance changes and annual results across 31 Canadian-listed oil and gas producers.
Guidance cuts and warnings showed the clearest pattern: nine of nine lagged XEG over two sessions, with a median gap of −3.8 percentage points and median trading volume of 2.7 times baseline.
Nine events across seven companies. XEG is the iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF. Small historical sample; not proof of cause or a predictive trading rule.
SEPTEMBER 2026 · READER EDITION AND TECHNICAL COMPANION
Reserve Growth and Equity Returns
More producing reserves per share. A stronger stock return?
The study did not establish a reliable forecasting relationship between reserve growth per share and the following year’s stock return. This does not prove that no relationship exists.
For boards and investors, the next questions concern spending, funding, ownership and entry price. These are diligence questions, not validated return predictors.
Read the report page ↗Independent research for discussion, not investment advice. Each report includes its own methodology, qualifications, sources and author disclosures.